黑料大事

Addressing the Housing Crunch

Thursday 12.20pm-1.15pm

• Jackson Hills
• Natalie Rayment RPIA (Fellow)
• Bradley Rasmussen

Jackson Hills
Balancing the Olympics: Navigating Housing Affordability and Displacement in the lead up to 2032

As Southeast Queensland prepares to host the 2032 Olympics and Paralympic Games, one critical issue is the impact on housing affordability and the potential for residential displacement. This presentation delves into the dynamics between urban development for mega-events and the challenges they pose to housing accessibility, affordability and stability.

The lead-up to hosting the Olympic Games in many cities around the world has frequently included ambitious urban renewal projects, aimed at enhancing infrastructure and revitalising neighbourhoods. SEQ will likely be no different, with largescale infrastructure improvements accompanied by facilities to host events and house athletes planned across the region. The lesson from other jurisdictions is that these initiatives often trigger gentrification processes, driving up property values and rents, thereby displacing long-term residents who can no longer afford to live in their communities. This phenomenon raises questions about social equity.

We build upon recommendations of the report, Go for Gold: A social inclusion legacy for the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games, prepared for Q Shelter by Urbis in 2022 and draw on case studies from previous Olympic host cities to explore the patterns of residential displacement and its underlying causes. We examine the role of various stakeholders, including governments, developers, and grassroots organisations, in shaping housing policies and mitigating the adverse effects of rapid urban transformation.

Furthermore, we will outline several objectives related to preventing, reducing, and monitoring potential displacement effects in the community, including preventing and reducing homelessness, preventing displacement of rental tenants, regulating the short-term rental market to maximise properties in the long-term rental market and establishing a system to monitor and respond to housing market changes prior to and following Brisbane 2032.

We highlight successful strategies employed by some cities to promote inclusive growth and protect vulnerable populations from displacement pressures, and discuss proactive measures such as inclusive zoning policies, affordable housing mandates, co-housing models and social housing investments that preserve neighbourhood diversity. By examining past experiences and proposing forward-thinking solutions, it aims to inform policymakers, urban planners, and community stakeholders on how to create more equitable and sustainable cities amidst the hosting of major international events. Moreover, we emphasise the importance of community engagement and participatory planning processes in ensuring that urban development initiatives benefit all residents, not just a privileged few.

Natalie Rayment RPIA (Fellow)
Winning the Suburbs

While it’s perhaps too early to declare that COVID was the death of the populist NIMBY movement, on reflection, community attitudes to housing have certainly changed post-COVID, in the wake of the climate crisis, health crisis and more recent housing and cost of living crisis. NIMBYism is no longer the dominant community conversations, and vocal community members and leaders are no longer proud to delay, deny or upsize housing or push it further outside the city limits.

Particularly relevant to underpinning what influences community attitudes to different forms of housing, Everett Rogers’ “Diffusion of Innovation” theory provides an insightful framework for understanding the critical factors that support and spread innovation - 1) compatibility with established values, 2) perceived personal benefit, 3) how simple and easy it is to understand, 4) whether it can be trialled and 5) how easily observable the innovation is.

With the global housing crisis regularly front page news, house prices increasingly out of reach, and one or two degrees separation for many of us from someone living in housing stress, the dots have been connected between the adverse impacts of the housing crisis, and the need for more, better and more diverse types of housing in the right locations. While Rogers’ factor 1 seems met for the clear majority, it is only the first step. Perhaps we have only slightly shifted attitudes, from BANANA (build absolutely nothing anywhere near anybody) to NIMBY (sure, but not in my backyard).

Roger’s factor 2 is hitting the mark more strongly for the younger generations. It seems obvious, as they are the ones with skin in the game, asking “is there room in this city for me” when it comes to the housing challenges facing the suburbs and the reducing likelihood of reaching home ownership. Is this starting to broaden out to other generations, as Gen Xers worry about their children’s capacity for future home ownership and Baby Boomers as they look to downsize where they live and have established their social networks.

It’s clear that both cities and regions need to adapt to accommodate population growth and the needs of our future generations. This change is inevitable and becoming more accepted within the broad community, but the question remains will that change be push or pull? What’s next is how successful we are, as an industry, at exposing community awareness, understanding and urgency. While we are in the midst of a construction crisis and labour shortages are heavily impacting the housing puzzle, planning is also one of the levers that can have a positive and lasting impact. Rogers’ factors 2 to 5 remain a work in progress.

Do we need a revolution, or simply an evolution, in the community conversation about housing, as our community builds capacity in their understanding of the wicked problems we’re facing and the need to change?

Bradley Rasmussen
Determining housing realism within zoning optimism

To address the pressing issue of the housing crisis and accommodate future population growth, increased zoning densification in urban areas is required. The concept of gentle density supports the core principle of minimising urban sprawl to protect the environment and while maximising investment in services and infrastructure.

This gentle density housing falls between single homes and big apartment buildings. It includes dwelling types like townhouses, duplexes, triplexes, low-rise apartments, and accessory dwelling units. The SEQ Regional Plan calls for gentle density to be delivered as a strategy to address future population growth while sustainably enhancing communities.

However, it can be difficult to determine what urban consolidation will take place in these areas over time and the desired housing built form that can be supported. The challenge is determining the realism, that is the attainable development opportunity, within the optimism of what can ultimately be delivered by the increased zoning densification.

This presentation will discuss the use of spatial technology and artificial intelligence to tackle this problem. The session will examine the use of urban modelling tools to generate scenarios of various urban density outcomes. These scenarios can demonstrate the delivery of various housing types into existing suburbs over the next 20 to 30 years. With this information, strategic urban planners and communities can get a better understanding of what the future holds and plan accordingly.